Cleveland Guardians 6–3 Chicago White Sox

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Wed, Sep 16, 05:00 PM UTC

Probable pitchers: away: Anthony Kay (ERA 4.53, WHIP 1.37) · home: Parker Messick (ERA 2.51, WHIP 1.03)

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

Bet	Strategy	Stake	Odds	To win	Model edge	P&L	Status
Chicago White Sox win in Cleveland Guardians v Chicago White Sox · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.54	Portfolio	$5.93	2.54	$9.13	+5%	-5.93	lost
leg 1: Chicago White Sox win in Cleveland Guardians v Chicago White Sox · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.54 lost leg 2: Washington Nationals win in Washington Nationals v Philadelphia Phillies · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.65 lost leg 3: New York Yankees win in Minnesota Twins v New York Yankees · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.74 lost	Chaos parlay	$2.00	11.71	$21.42	+30%	-2.00	lost
Chicago White Sox win in Cleveland Guardians v Chicago White Sox · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.54	Elo value MLB	$10.00	2.54	$15.40	+12%	-10.00	lost
Chicago White Sox win in Cleveland Guardians v Chicago White Sox · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.54	MLB dog variance	$10.00	2.54	$15.40	+12%	-10.00	lost

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Cleveland Guardians win	59%	1.70
Chicago White Sox win	41%	2.54

across 8 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

Outcome	Trend	First	Now	Move
Chicago White Sox win		2.40	2.44	+1.7%
Cleveland Guardians win		1.62	1.58	-2.5%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Scoring by inning

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	Total
Chicago White Sox	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	3
Cleveland Guardians	0	0	2	0	0	4	0	0	—	6

The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

Metric	Cleveland Guardians	Chicago White Sox
congestion 21d	19.00	19.00
elo	1500.79	1491.78
elo momentum (last 5)	3.34	-1.40
matches since win	0.00	1.00
rest days	0.76	0.76
runs against avg (last 10)	4.90	4.70
runs for avg (last 10)	4.80	4.20