← Major League Baseball 2026 · Wed, Sep 16, 05:40 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Carlos Rodón (ERA 2.94, WHIP 1.12) · home: Zebby Matthews (ERA 4.98, WHIP 1.27)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: Chicago White Sox win in Cleveland Guardians v Chicago White Sox · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.54 lost leg 2: Washington Nationals win in Washington Nationals v Philadelphia Phillies · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.65 lost leg 3: New York Yankees win in Minnesota Twins v New York Yankees · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.74 lost | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 11.71 | $21.42 | +30% | -2.00 | lost |
New York Yankees win in Minnesota Twins v New York Yankees · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.74 | Pitcher edge | $10.00 | 1.74 | $7.40 | +7% | -10.00 | lost |
New York Yankees win in Minnesota Twins v New York Yankees · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.74 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.74 | $7.40 | +7% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| New York Yankees win | 56% | 4.51 |
| Minnesota Twins win | 44% | 2.40 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Yankees win | 1.65 | 1.70 | +3.2% | |
| Minnesota Twins win | 2.09 | 2.23 | +6.5% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Yankees | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Minnesota Twins | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Minnesota Twins | New York Yankees |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 18.00 | 20.00 |
| elo | 1447.35 | 1569.80 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -12.48 | 4.27 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 0.75 | 0.75 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 6.10 | 3.20 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 2.80 | 5.50 |