← Major League Baseball 2026 · Wed, Sep 16, 10:45 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Zack Wheeler (ERA 3.14, WHIP 1.07) · home: Jared Simpson (ERA 6.75, WHIP 0.75)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: Chicago White Sox win in Cleveland Guardians v Chicago White Sox · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.54 lost leg 2: Washington Nationals win in Washington Nationals v Philadelphia Phillies · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.65 lost leg 3: New York Yankees win in Minnesota Twins v New York Yankees · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.74 lost | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 11.71 | $21.42 | +30% | -2.00 | lost |
Washington Nationals win in Washington Nationals v Philadelphia Phillies · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.65 | Steam confusion | $10.00 | 2.65 | $16.50 | +8% | -10.00 | lost |
Washington Nationals win in Washington Nationals v Philadelphia Phillies · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.65 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 2.65 | $16.50 | +8% | -10.00 | lost |
Washington Nationals win in Washington Nationals v Philadelphia Phillies · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.65 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 2.65 | $16.50 | +8% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Phillies win | 57% | 1.76 |
| Washington Nationals win | 43% | 2.66 |
across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Phillies win | 1.76 | 1.54 | -12.9% | |
| Washington Nationals win | 2.09 | 2.58 | +23.2% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Phillies | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Washington Nationals | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Washington Nationals | Philadelphia Phillies |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 18.00 | 17.00 |
| elo | 1459.24 | 1550.68 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.01 | -9.13 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 5.00 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 4.50 |