← Major League Baseball 2026 · Wed, Sep 23, 01:45 AM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Taj Bradley (ERA 3.81, WHIP 1.23) · home: Anthony Molina (ERA 4.18, WHIP 1.11)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
San Francisco Giants win in San Francisco Giants v Minnesota Twins · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.14 | Portfolio | $13.93 | 2.14 | $15.88 | +9% | -13.93 | lost |
San Francisco Giants win in San Francisco Giants v Minnesota Twins · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.09 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 2.09 | $10.95 | +19% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Twins win | 54% | 1.80 |
| San Francisco Giants win | 46% | 2.28 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Twins win | 1.76 | 1.68 | -4.7% | |
| San Francisco Giants win | 1.90 | 2.25 | +18.7% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Twins | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| San Francisco Giants | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | San Francisco Giants | Minnesota Twins |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 18.00 | 18.00 |
| elo | 1464.31 | 1451.39 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.25 | 1.54 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 4.80 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 3.70 |