← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sun, Sep 27, 07:05 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: · home: Carson Seymour (ERA 4.7, WHIP 1.53)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
San Francisco Giants win in San Francisco Giants v Los Angeles Dodgers · Match winner (2-way) @ 3.40 | Portfolio | $6.52 | 3.40 | $15.65 | +11% | -6.52 | lost |
San Francisco Giants win in San Francisco Giants v Los Angeles Dodgers · Match winner (2-way) @ 3.08 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 3.08 | $20.77 | +14% | -10.00 | lost |
San Francisco Giants win in San Francisco Giants v Los Angeles Dodgers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.81 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 2.81 | $18.11 | +4% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Dodgers win | 70% | 1.42 |
| San Francisco Giants win | 30% | 3.66 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Dodgers win | 1.34 | 1.33 | -1.3% | |
| San Francisco Giants win | 3.40 | 3.52 | +3.6% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 |
| San Francisco Giants | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | San Francisco Giants | Los Angeles Dodgers |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 17.00 | 19.00 |
| elo | 1454.99 | 1589.66 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.24 | -1.08 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 0.96 | 0.96 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 2.70 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 4.70 |