← Major League Baseball 2026 · Wed, Sep 16, 10:40 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Brady Basso (ERA 3.86, WHIP 1.39) · home: Nick Martinez (ERA 2.92, WHIP 1.07)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Tampa Bay Rays win in Tampa Bay Rays v Oakland Athletics · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.56 | Portfolio | $14.95 | 1.56 | $8.37 | +5% | +8.37 | won |
Tampa Bay Rays win in Tampa Bay Rays v Oakland Athletics · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.50 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.50 | $5.02 | +7% | +5.02 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Rays win | 64% | 1.56 |
| Oakland Athletics win | 36% | 2.89 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oakland Athletics win | 2.81 | 2.58 | -8.1% | |
| Tampa Bay Rays win | 1.42 | 1.53 | +7.9% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oakland Athletics | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | 4 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Tampa Bay Rays | Oakland Athletics |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 17.00 | 18.00 |
| elo | 1545.37 | 1417.02 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.69 | -0.10 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 5.20 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 5.60 | 3.90 |