← Major League Baseball 2026 · Wed, Sep 16, 01:38 AM UTC · scheduled
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Seattle Mariners win | 54% | 1.83 |
| Los Angeles Angels win | 46% | 2.09 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)