Los Angeles Angels 2–1 Seattle Mariners

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Wed, Sep 16, 01:38 AM UTC

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

Bet	Strategy	Stake	Odds	To win	Model edge	P&L	Status
Los Angeles Angels win in Los Angeles Angels v Seattle Mariners · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.47	Portfolio	$7.81	2.47	$11.48	+7%	+11.48	won
Los Angeles Angels win in Los Angeles Angels v Seattle Mariners · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.34	Elo value MLB	$10.00	2.34	$13.42	+9%	+13.42	won
Los Angeles Angels win in Los Angeles Angels v Seattle Mariners · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.34	MLB dog variance	$10.00	2.34	$13.42	+9%	+13.42	won

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Seattle Mariners win	58%	1.83
Los Angeles Angels win	42%	2.47

across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

Outcome	Trend	First	Now	Move
Seattle Mariners win		1.69	1.57	-7.0%
Los Angeles Angels win		2.07	2.46	+18.6%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Scoring by inning

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	Total
Seattle Mariners	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	1
Los Angeles Angels	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	—	2

The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

Metric	Los Angeles Angels	Seattle Mariners
congestion 21d	18.00	19.00
elo	1426.50	1477.36
elo momentum (last 5)	2.54	1.21
matches since win	0.00	2.00
rest days	1.00	1.00
runs against avg (last 10)	3.30	4.90
runs for avg (last 10)	3.90	5.70