Colorado Rockies 3–9 San Diego Padres

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Thu, Sep 17, 12:40 AM UTC

Probable pitchers: away: Robbie Ray (ERA 3.57, WHIP 1.35) · home: Mason Adams (ERA 3.38, WHIP 1.45)

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

Bet	Strategy	Stake	Odds	To win	Model edge	P&L	Status
San Diego Padres win in Colorado Rockies v San Diego Padres · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.61	Portfolio	$10.30	1.61	$6.28	+4%	+6.28	won
San Diego Padres win in Colorado Rockies v San Diego Padres · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.57	Elo value MLB	$10.00	1.57	$5.71	+6%	+5.71	won
San Diego Padres win in Colorado Rockies v San Diego Padres · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.50	Drought fade	$10.00	1.50	$5.02	+1%	+5.02	won

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
San Diego Padres win	61%	1.65
Colorado Rockies win	39%	9.41

across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

Outcome	Trend	First	Now	Move
San Diego Padres win		1.60	1.62	+1.5%
Colorado Rockies win		2.29	2.38	+4.0%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Scoring by inning

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	Total
San Diego Padres	2	1	0	1	4	1	0	0	0	9
Colorado Rockies	1	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	3

The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

Metric	Colorado Rockies	San Diego Padres
congestion 21d	18.00	17.00
elo	1381.94	1535.39
elo momentum (last 5)	-2.70	2.76
matches since win	0.00	1.00
rest days	1.00	1.00
runs against avg (last 10)	7.40	4.70
runs for avg (last 10)	5.10	5.30