Washington Nationals v Los Angeles Angels

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sun, Sep 13, 05:35 PM UTC · scheduled

Probable pitchers: away: Grayson Rodriguez (ERA 6.28, WHIP 1.57) · home: Jake Irvin (ERA 5.52, WHIP 1.42)

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Washington Nationals win	50%	1.90
Los Angeles Angels win	50%	1.97

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

Outcome	Trend	First	Now	Move
Los Angeles Angels win		1.79	1.90	+5.7%
Washington Nationals win		1.86	1.90	+1.9%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.