Washington Nationals 6–5 Los Angeles Angels

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sun, Sep 13, 05:35 PM UTC

Probable pitchers: away: Grayson Rodriguez (ERA 6.28, WHIP 1.57) · home: Jake Irvin (ERA 5.52, WHIP 1.42)

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

Bet	Strategy	Stake	Odds	To win	Model edge	P&L	Status
Washington Nationals win in Washington Nationals v Los Angeles Angels · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.86	Portfolio	$6.78	1.86	$5.83	+3%	+5.83	won
Washington Nationals win in Washington Nationals v Los Angeles Angels · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.86	Elo value MLB	$10.00	1.86	$8.61	+8%	+8.61	won

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Washington Nationals win	53%	1.90
Los Angeles Angels win	47%	10.45

across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

Outcome	Trend	First	Now	Move
Los Angeles Angels win		1.79	2.02	+12.9%
Washington Nationals win		1.86	1.83	-1.7%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Scoring by inning

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	Total
Los Angeles Angels	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	2	1	5
Washington Nationals	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	4	—	6

The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

Metric	Washington Nationals	Los Angeles Angels
congestion 21d	19.00	18.00
elo	1453.46	1424.95
elo momentum (last 5)	-2.58	4.95
matches since win	0.00	2.00
rest days	0.90	0.90
runs against avg (last 10)	5.70	3.60
runs for avg (last 10)	4.00	3.40