Los Angeles Dodgers 1–5 San Diego Padres

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Thu, Sep 24, 02:10 AM UTC

Probable pitchers: away: Robbie Ray (ERA 3.6, WHIP 1.33) · home: Yoshinobu Yamamoto (ERA 2.51, WHIP 0.87)

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

Bet	Strategy	Stake	Odds	To win	Model edge	P&L	Status
San Diego Padres win in Los Angeles Dodgers v San Diego Padres · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.89	Portfolio	$4.65	2.89	$8.79	+5%	+8.79	won
leg 1: San Diego Padres win in Los Angeles Dodgers v San Diego Padres · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.89 won leg 2: Texas Rangers win in Texas Rangers v New York Mets · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.00 lost leg 3: Arizona Diamondbacks win in Colorado Rockies v Arizona Diamondbacks · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.67 won	Chaos parlay	$2.00	9.65	$17.31	+32%	-2.00	lost
San Diego Padres win in Los Angeles Dodgers v San Diego Padres · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.89	Elo value MLB	$10.00	2.89	$18.90	+13%	+18.90	won
San Diego Padres win in Los Angeles Dodgers v San Diego Padres · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.52	MLB dog variance	$10.00	2.52	$15.22	-2%	+15.22	won

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Los Angeles Dodgers win	56%	11.74
San Diego Padres win	44%	2.89

across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

Outcome	Trend	First	Now	Move
San Diego Padres win		2.56	1.07	-58.1%
Los Angeles Dodgers win		1.46	8.25	+465.0%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Scoring by inning

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	Total
San Diego Padres	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	1	5
Los Angeles Dodgers	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	1

The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

Metric	Los Angeles Dodgers	San Diego Padres
congestion 21d	19.00	17.00
elo	1594.26	1545.14
elo momentum (last 5)	13.42	6.89
matches since win	0.00	1.00
rest days	1.00	1.00
runs against avg (last 10)	2.60	4.90
runs for avg (last 10)	5.30	6.40