← Major League Baseball 2026 · Thu, Sep 24, 12:05 AM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Nolan McLean (ERA 3.18, WHIP 1.19)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: San Diego Padres win in Los Angeles Dodgers v San Diego Padres · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.89 won leg 2: Texas Rangers win in Texas Rangers v New York Mets · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.00 lost leg 3: Arizona Diamondbacks win in Colorado Rockies v Arizona Diamondbacks · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.67 won | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 9.65 | $17.31 | +32% | -2.00 | lost |
Texas Rangers win in Texas Rangers v New York Mets · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.00 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 2.00 | $10.00 | +10% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Texas Rangers win | 51% | 3.52 |
| New York Mets win | 49% | 2.09 |
across 7 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Mets win | 1.95 | 2.07 | +6.1% | |
| Texas Rangers win | 1.83 | 1.78 | -2.6% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Mets | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| Texas Rangers | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Texas Rangers | New York Mets |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 17.00 | 17.00 |
| elo | 1489.65 | 1498.71 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.28 | 5.39 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 3.90 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 4.30 |