← Major League Baseball 2026 · Thu, Sep 24, 12:40 AM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Merrill Kelly (ERA 5, WHIP 1.47) · home: Mason Adams (ERA 5.09, WHIP 1.65)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: San Diego Padres win in Los Angeles Dodgers v San Diego Padres · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.89 won leg 2: Texas Rangers win in Texas Rangers v New York Mets · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.00 lost leg 3: Arizona Diamondbacks win in Colorado Rockies v Arizona Diamondbacks · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.67 won | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 9.65 | $17.31 | +32% | -2.00 | lost |
Arizona Diamondbacks win in Colorado Rockies v Arizona Diamondbacks · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.67 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.67 | $6.70 | +7% | +6.70 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Arizona Diamondbacks win | 60% | 1.67 |
| Colorado Rockies win | 40% | 4.31 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona Diamondbacks win | 1.60 | 1.55 | -2.9% | |
| Colorado Rockies win | 2.29 | 2.58 | +12.5% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
| Colorado Rockies | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Colorado Rockies | Arizona Diamondbacks |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 17.00 | 16.00 |
| elo | 1373.62 | 1516.21 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.46 | 3.58 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 6.50 | 4.70 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 5.20 |