← Major League Baseball 2026 · Tue, Sep 22, 10:40 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Dustin May (ERA 4.61, WHIP 1.32) · home: Zack Wheeler (ERA 2.99, WHIP 1.06)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Milwaukee Brewers win in Philadelphia Phillies v Milwaukee Brewers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.20 | Portfolio | $8.21 | 2.20 | $9.85 | +5% | -8.21 | lost |
leg 1: Milwaukee Brewers win in Philadelphia Phillies v Milwaukee Brewers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.20 lost leg 2: Los Angeles Dodgers win in Los Angeles Dodgers v San Diego Padres · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.83 won leg 3: Houston Astros win in Seattle Mariners v Houston Astros · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.29 won | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 9.21 | $16.42 | +36% | -2.00 | lost |
Milwaukee Brewers win in Philadelphia Phillies v Milwaukee Brewers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.20 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 2.20 | $12.00 | +13% | -10.00 | lost |
Milwaukee Brewers win in Philadelphia Phillies v Milwaukee Brewers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.19 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 2.19 | $11.87 | +12% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Phillies win | 53% | 2.01 |
| Milwaukee Brewers win | 47% | 2.20 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milwaukee Brewers win | 1.83 | 2.16 | +18.2% | |
| Philadelphia Phillies win | 1.73 | 1.73 | 0.0% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milwaukee Brewers | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | — | 6 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Philadelphia Phillies | Milwaukee Brewers |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 18.00 | 18.00 |
| elo | 1552.07 | 1594.07 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.38 | 3.92 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 2.23 | 1.97 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 3.60 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 6.80 |