← Major League Baseball 2026 · Wed, Sep 23, 01:40 AM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Cristian Javier (ERA 5.31, WHIP 1.46) · home: Logan Gilbert (ERA 3.69, WHIP 1.06)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: Milwaukee Brewers win in Philadelphia Phillies v Milwaukee Brewers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.20 lost leg 2: Los Angeles Dodgers win in Los Angeles Dodgers v San Diego Padres · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.83 won leg 3: Houston Astros win in Seattle Mariners v Houston Astros · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.29 won | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 9.21 | $16.42 | +36% | -2.00 | lost |
Houston Astros win in Seattle Mariners v Houston Astros · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.29 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 2.29 | $12.88 | +9% | +12.88 | won |
Houston Astros win in Seattle Mariners v Houston Astros · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.29 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 2.29 | $12.88 | +9% | +12.88 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Seattle Mariners win | 56% | 2.14 |
| Houston Astros win | 44% | 2.29 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Astros win | 2.05 | 1.73 | -15.6% | |
| Seattle Mariners win | 1.57 | 2.14 | +36.2% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Astros | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| Seattle Mariners | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Seattle Mariners | Houston Astros |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 17.00 | 17.00 |
| elo | 1478.78 | 1491.37 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.42 | -11.12 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 2.27 | 2.31 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 4.60 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 5.70 | 2.80 |