Atlanta United FC v FC Cincinnati

← Major League Soccer 2026 · Sat, Oct 10, 11:30 PM UTC · scheduled

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

Bet	Strategy	Stake	Odds	To win	Model edge	P&L	Status
FC Cincinnati win in Atlanta United FC v FC Cincinnati · Match result @ 2.75	Portfolio	$5.41	2.75	$9.47	+6%	—	pending

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

Outcome	Market says	Model says	Best price	Verdict
Atlanta United FC win	40%	35%	2.50	fair
FC Cincinnati win	35%	41%	2.83	value: +17%
Draw	24%	24%	4.15	fair

across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match result

Outcome	First	Now	Move
FC Cincinnati win	2.63	2.65	+0.8%
Draw	3.92	4.00	+1.9%
Atlanta United FC win	2.29	2.30	+0.4%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand

venue

Mercedes-Benz Stadium