← Major League Baseball 2026 · Fri, Sep 11, 06:20 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Wilber Dotel (ERA 4.41, WHIP 1.32) · home: Shota Imanaga (ERA 3.91, WHIP 1.12)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Pittsburgh Pirates win in Chicago Cubs v Pittsburgh Pirates · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.59 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 2.59 | $15.88 | -0% | -10.00 | lost |
Chicago Cubs win in Chicago Cubs v Pittsburgh Pirates · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.76 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.76 | $7.63 | +9% | +7.63 | won |
Chicago Cubs win in Chicago Cubs v Pittsburgh Pirates · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.76 | Portfolio | $7.39 | 1.76 | $5.64 | +3% | +5.64 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Chicago Cubs win | 54% | 1.83 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates win | 46% | 2.59 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Pirates win | 1.86 | 2.47 | +32.5% | |
| Chicago Cubs win | 1.73 | 1.70 | -1.7% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Chicago Cubs | 0 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | — | 12 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chicago Cubs | Pittsburgh Pirates |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 19.00 | 18.00 |
| elo | 1544.73 | 1504.66 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.77 | 7.51 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 1.78 | 0.78 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 5.40 | 3.40 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 5.50 | 4.50 |