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Chicago Cubs 12–2 Pittsburgh Pirates

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Fri, Sep 11, 06:20 PM UTC

Probable pitchers: away: Wilber Dotel (ERA 4.41, WHIP 1.32) · home: Shota Imanaga (ERA 3.91, WHIP 1.12)

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

BetStrategyStakeOddsTo winModel edgeP&LStatus
Pittsburgh Pirates win in Chicago Cubs v Pittsburgh Pirates · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.59
MLB dog variance$10.002.59$15.88-0%-10.00lost
Chicago Cubs win in Chicago Cubs v Pittsburgh Pirates · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.76
Elo value MLB$10.001.76$7.63+9%+7.63won
Chicago Cubs win in Chicago Cubs v Pittsburgh Pirates · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.76
Portfolio$7.391.76$5.64+3%+5.64won

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Chicago Cubs win54%1.83
Pittsburgh Pirates win46%2.59

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

OutcomeTrendFirstNowMove
Pittsburgh Pirates win1.862.47+32.5%
Chicago Cubs win1.731.70-1.7%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Scoring by inning

123456789Total
Pittsburgh Pirates1000010002
Chicago Cubs03240210—12