← Major League Baseball 2026 · Thu, Sep 17, 11:15 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Aaron Nola (ERA 4.69, WHIP 1.37) · home: Nolan McLean (ERA 3.24, WHIP 1.18)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Philadelphia Phillies win in New York Mets v Philadelphia Phillies · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.20 | Portfolio | $10.03 | 2.20 | $12.04 | +7% | +12.04 | won |
leg 1: Philadelphia Phillies win in New York Mets v Philadelphia Phillies · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.20 won leg 2: Los Angeles Angels win in Los Angeles Angels v Minnesota Twins · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.14 won leg 3: Los Angeles Dodgers win in Cincinnati Reds v Los Angeles Dodgers · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.62 won | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 7.63 | $13.25 | +32% | +13.25 | won |
Philadelphia Phillies win in New York Mets v Philadelphia Phillies · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.20 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 2.20 | $12.00 | +16% | +12.00 | won |
Philadelphia Phillies win in New York Mets v Philadelphia Phillies · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.09 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 2.09 | $10.95 | +10% | +10.95 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| New York Mets win | 55% | 1.76 |
| Philadelphia Phillies win | 45% | 2.20 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Phillies win | 2.09 | 2.14 | +2.2% | |
| New York Mets win | 1.73 | 1.75 | +0.8% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Phillies | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| New York Mets | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | New York Mets | Philadelphia Phillies |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 18.00 | 18.00 |
| elo | 1493.32 | 1553.62 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.77 | -3.69 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 1.01 | 1.02 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 4.80 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 5.80 | 4.40 |