← Major League Baseball 2026 · Thu, Sep 17, 04:40 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Justin Wrobleski (ERA 3.78, WHIP 1.16) · home: Brady Singer (ERA 5.38, WHIP 1.51)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: Philadelphia Phillies win in New York Mets v Philadelphia Phillies · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.20 won leg 2: Los Angeles Angels win in Los Angeles Angels v Minnesota Twins · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.14 won leg 3: Los Angeles Dodgers win in Cincinnati Reds v Los Angeles Dodgers · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.62 won | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 7.63 | $13.25 | +32% | +13.25 | won |
Los Angeles Dodgers win in Cincinnati Reds v Los Angeles Dodgers · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.62 | Pitcher edge | $10.00 | 1.62 | $6.20 | +2% | +6.20 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Dodgers win | 60% | 1.62 |
| Cincinnati Reds win | 40% | 2.46 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Dodgers win | 1.57 | 1.60 | +1.6% | |
| Cincinnati Reds win | 2.19 | 2.42 | +10.7% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 |
| Cincinnati Reds | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cincinnati Reds | Los Angeles Dodgers |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 18.00 | 19.00 |
| elo | 1460.95 | 1580.84 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.03 | -5.22 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 0.75 | 0.75 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 7.70 | 3.00 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 5.30 |