← Major League Baseball 2026 · Fri, Sep 18, 01:38 AM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Taj Bradley (ERA 3.81, WHIP 1.25) · home: Walbert Ureña (ERA 2.88, WHIP 1.24)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: Philadelphia Phillies win in New York Mets v Philadelphia Phillies · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.20 won leg 2: Los Angeles Angels win in Los Angeles Angels v Minnesota Twins · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.14 won leg 3: Los Angeles Dodgers win in Cincinnati Reds v Los Angeles Dodgers · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.62 won | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 7.63 | $13.25 | +32% | +13.25 | won |
Los Angeles Angels win in Los Angeles Angels v Minnesota Twins · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.14 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 2.14 | $11.40 | +11% | +11.40 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Angels win | 52% | 2.14 |
| Minnesota Twins win | 48% | 5.25 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Twins win | 1.79 | 4.11 | +129.1% | |
| Los Angeles Angels win | 1.90 | 1.22 | -35.6% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Twins | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| Los Angeles Angels | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Los Angeles Angels | Minnesota Twins |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 18.00 | 18.00 |
| elo | 1424.73 | 1449.85 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.88 | -6.52 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 1.00 | 1.33 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 6.10 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 2.70 |