← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sun, Sep 13, 01:40 AM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Bryan Woo (ERA 4.03, WHIP 1.06) · home: Gage Jump (ERA 5.12, WHIP 1.49)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oakland Athletics win in Oakland Athletics v Seattle Mariners · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.52 | Portfolio | $8.07 | 2.52 | $12.27 | +8% | -8.07 | lost |
Oakland Athletics win in Oakland Athletics v Seattle Mariners · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.29 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 2.29 | $12.88 | +7% | -10.00 | lost |
Oakland Athletics win in Oakland Athletics v Seattle Mariners · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.29 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 2.29 | $12.88 | +7% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Seattle Mariners win | 59% | 1.71 |
| Oakland Athletics win | 41% | 3.96 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seattle Mariners win | 1.52 | 1.69 | +11.2% | |
| Oakland Athletics win | 2.19 | 2.24 | +2.4% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seattle Mariners | 2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 19 |
| Oakland Athletics | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Oakland Athletics | Seattle Mariners |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 18.00 | 18.00 |
| elo | 1422.84 | 1475.86 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.46 | -0.58 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 5.00 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 4.80 |