Oakland Athletics v Seattle Mariners

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sun, Sep 13, 01:40 AM UTC · scheduled

Probable pitchers: away: Bryan Woo (ERA 4.03, WHIP 1.06) · home: Gage Jump (ERA 5.12, WHIP 1.49)

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

Bet	Strategy	Stake	Odds	To win	Model edge	P&L	Status
Oakland Athletics win in Oakland Athletics v Seattle Mariners · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.29	Elo value MLB	$10.00	2.29	$12.88	+7%	—	pending
Oakland Athletics win in Oakland Athletics v Seattle Mariners · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.29	MLB dog variance	$10.00	2.29	$12.88	+7%	—	pending

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Seattle Mariners win	59%	1.67
Oakland Athletics win	41%	2.46

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

Outcome	Trend	First	Now	Move
Seattle Mariners win		1.52	1.57	+3.1%
Oakland Athletics win		2.19	2.46	+12.4%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.