← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sat, Sep 12, 06:20 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Paul Skenes (ERA 3.83, WHIP 1.15) · home: Clay Holmes (ERA 2.83, WHIP 1.12)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Chicago Cubs win in Chicago Cubs v Pittsburgh Pirates · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.86 | Pitcher edge | $10.00 | 1.86 | $8.61 | +14% | +8.61 | won |
Chicago Cubs win in Chicago Cubs v Pittsburgh Pirates · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.86 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.86 | $8.61 | +14% | +8.61 | won |
Chicago Cubs win in Chicago Cubs v Pittsburgh Pirates · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.86 | Portfolio | $9.35 | 1.86 | $8.05 | +5% | +8.05 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Chicago Cubs win | 51% | 2.29 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates win | 49% | 2.09 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Pirates win | 1.79 | 2.02 | +12.9% | |
| Chicago Cubs win | 1.83 | 1.81 | -0.9% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Chicago Cubs | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | — | 4 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chicago Cubs | Pittsburgh Pirates |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 19.00 | 18.00 |
| elo | 1548.87 | 1500.53 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.47 | 8.67 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 4.20 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 4.20 |