Chicago Cubs v Pittsburgh Pirates

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sat, Sep 12, 06:20 PM UTC · scheduled

Probable pitchers: away: Paul Skenes (ERA 3.83, WHIP 1.15) · home: Clay Holmes (ERA 2.83, WHIP 1.12)

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

Bet	Strategy	Stake	Odds	To win	Model edge	P&L	Status
Chicago Cubs win in Chicago Cubs v Pittsburgh Pirates · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.86	Pitcher edge	$10.00	1.86	$8.61	+14%	—	pending
Chicago Cubs win in Chicago Cubs v Pittsburgh Pirates · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.86	Elo value MLB	$10.00	1.86	$8.61	+14%	—	pending
Chicago Cubs win in Chicago Cubs v Pittsburgh Pirates · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.86	Portfolio	$9.35	1.86	$8.05	+5%	—	pending

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Chicago Cubs win	51%	1.97
Pittsburgh Pirates win	49%	2.01

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

Outcome	Trend	First	Now	Move
Pittsburgh Pirates win		1.79	2.01	+12.0%
Chicago Cubs win		1.83	1.79	-1.8%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.