← Major League Baseball 2026 · Wed, Sep 16, 12:40 AM UTC
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
San Diego Padres win in Colorado Rockies v San Diego Padres · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.73 | Drought fade | $10.00 | 1.73 | $7.32 | +16% | -10.00 | lost |
San Diego Padres win in Colorado Rockies v San Diego Padres · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.73 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.73 | $7.32 | +16% | -10.00 | lost |
San Diego Padres win in Colorado Rockies v San Diego Padres · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.73 | Portfolio | $13.05 | 1.73 | $9.56 | +5% | -13.05 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| San Diego Padres win | 59% | 1.73 |
| Colorado Rockies win | 41% | 3.29 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Diego Padres win | 1.65 | 1.36 | -17.3% | |
| Colorado Rockies win | 2.19 | 3.29 | +50.2% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Diego Padres | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Colorado Rockies | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 0 | — | 9 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Colorado Rockies | San Diego Padres |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 18.00 | 18.00 |
| elo | 1376.17 | 1541.16 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.53 | 11.64 |
| matches since win | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 7.80 | 4.00 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 5.30 |