← Major League Baseball 2026 · Tue, Sep 22, 10:45 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Parker Messick (ERA 2.57, WHIP 1.04) · home: Payton Tolle (ERA 3.02, WHIP 1.07)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Boston Red Sox win in Boston Red Sox v Cleveland Guardians · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.81 | Portfolio | $7.73 | 1.81 | $6.26 | +3% | -7.73 | lost |
leg 1: Boston Red Sox win in Boston Red Sox v Cleveland Guardians · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.73 lost leg 2: Detroit Tigers win in Detroit Tigers v Washington Nationals · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.70 lost leg 3: Kansas City Royals win in Kansas City Royals v Chicago White Sox · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.01 lost | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 5.93 | $9.86 | +10% | -2.00 | lost |
Boston Red Sox win in Boston Red Sox v Cleveland Guardians · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.73 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.73 | $7.32 | +5% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Boston Red Sox win | 54% | 1.81 |
| Cleveland Guardians win | 46% | 2.12 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Guardians win | 2.05 | 2.10 | +2.2% | |
| Boston Red Sox win | 1.73 | 1.76 | +1.7% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Guardians | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| Boston Red Sox | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Boston Red Sox | Cleveland Guardians |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 18.00 | 18.00 |
| elo | 1543.34 | 1509.80 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.95 | 10.78 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 2.21 | 2.21 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 4.20 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 5.60 |