Kansas City Royals 11–14 Chicago White Sox

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Tue, Sep 22, 11:40 PM UTC

Probable pitchers: away: Anthony Kay (ERA 4.41, WHIP 1.36) · home: Daniel Lynch IV (ERA 3.29, WHIP 1.07)

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

Bet	Strategy	Stake	Odds	To win	Model edge	P&L	Status
Kansas City Royals win in Kansas City Royals v Chicago White Sox · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.05	Elo value MLB	$10.00	2.05	$10.51	+4%	-10.00	lost
leg 1: Boston Red Sox win in Boston Red Sox v Cleveland Guardians · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.73 lost leg 2: Detroit Tigers win in Detroit Tigers v Washington Nationals · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.70 lost leg 3: Kansas City Royals win in Kansas City Royals v Chicago White Sox · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.01 lost	Chaos parlay	$2.00	5.93	$9.86	+10%	-2.00	lost
Kansas City Royals win in Kansas City Royals v Chicago White Sox · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.01	Pitcher edge	$10.00	2.01	$10.10	+2%	-10.00	lost

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Chicago White Sox win	52%	1.90
Kansas City Royals win	48%	2.08

across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

Outcome	Trend	First	Now	Move
Chicago White Sox win		1.76	1.85	+4.7%
Kansas City Royals win		1.97	2.01	+1.8%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Scoring by inning

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	Total
Chicago White Sox	2	1	3	3	0	0	5	0	0	14
Kansas City Royals	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	3	4	11

The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

Metric	Kansas City Royals	Chicago White Sox
congestion 21d	18.00	19.00
elo	1460.48	1494.87
elo momentum (last 5)	-4.80	3.09
matches since win	4.00	0.00
rest days	2.25	2.23
runs against avg (last 10)	4.30	4.50
runs for avg (last 10)	3.20	4.80