← Major League Baseball 2026 · Tue, Sep 22, 10:40 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Jackson Kent (ERA 6.4, WHIP 1.76) · home: Drew Anderson (ERA 3.62, WHIP 1.29)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: Boston Red Sox win in Boston Red Sox v Cleveland Guardians · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.73 lost leg 2: Detroit Tigers win in Detroit Tigers v Washington Nationals · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.70 lost leg 3: Kansas City Royals win in Kansas City Royals v Chicago White Sox · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.01 lost | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 5.93 | $9.86 | +10% | -2.00 | lost |
Detroit Tigers win in Detroit Tigers v Washington Nationals · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.70 | Pitcher edge | $10.00 | 1.70 | $7.03 | +3% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Detroit Tigers win | 57% | 1.70 |
| Washington Nationals win | 43% | 2.38 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washington Nationals win | 2.05 | 2.29 | +11.9% | |
| Detroit Tigers win | 1.65 | 1.65 | 0.0% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washington Nationals | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Detroit Tigers | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Detroit Tigers | Washington Nationals |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 20.00 | 17.00 |
| elo | 1502.27 | 1459.79 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.55 | 0.55 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 4.80 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 5.90 | 4.60 |