← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sat, Sep 12, 05:10 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Tanner Gordon (ERA 5.4, WHIP 1.43)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Detroit Tigers win in Detroit Tigers v Colorado Rockies · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.61 | Drought fade | $10.00 | 1.61 | $6.10 | +12% | +6.10 | won |
Detroit Tigers win in Detroit Tigers v Colorado Rockies · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.70 | Portfolio | $13.91 | 1.70 | $9.78 | +6% | +9.78 | won |
Detroit Tigers win in Detroit Tigers v Colorado Rockies · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.70 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.70 | $7.03 | +17% | +7.03 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Detroit Tigers win | 58% | 1.70 |
| Colorado Rockies win | 42% | 3.52 |
across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado Rockies win | 2.05 | 2.45 | +19.4% | |
| Detroit Tigers win | 1.60 | 1.58 | -1.3% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado Rockies | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| Detroit Tigers | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | — | 11 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Detroit Tigers | Colorado Rockies |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 19.00 | 19.00 |
| elo | 1495.17 | 1382.35 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.08 | -10.04 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| rest days | 0.77 | 0.77 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 6.00 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 4.40 |