San Francisco Giants 3–4 Los Angeles Dodgers

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sat, Sep 26, 08:05 PM UTC

Probable pitchers: away: Blake Snell (ERA 1.86, WHIP 1.09) · home: Matt Wilkinson (ERA 3.65, WHIP 1.01)

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

Bet	Strategy	Stake	Odds	To win	Model edge	P&L	Status
San Francisco Giants win in San Francisco Giants v Los Angeles Dodgers · Match winner (2-way) @ 3.40	MLB dog variance	$10.00	3.40	$24.00	+26%	-10.00	lost
leg 1: Orlando City SC win in Philadelphia Union v Orlando City SC · Match result @ 6.50 leg 2: San Francisco Giants win in San Francisco Giants v Los Angeles Dodgers · Match winner (2-way) @ 3.96 leg 3: New York City FC win in Atlanta United FC v New York City FC · Match result @ 3.01	Chaos parlay	$2.00	77.40	$152.81	+175%	—	pending
San Francisco Giants win in San Francisco Giants v Los Angeles Dodgers · Match winner (2-way) @ 3.96	Elo value MLB	$10.00	3.96	$29.56	+44%	-10.00	lost
San Francisco Giants win in San Francisco Giants v Los Angeles Dodgers · Match winner (2-way) @ 3.66	Portfolio	$8.68	3.66	$23.06	+14%	-8.68	lost

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Los Angeles Dodgers win	71%	1.44
San Francisco Giants win	29%	3.96

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

Outcome	Trend	First	Now	Move
Los Angeles Dodgers win		1.44	1.31	-8.9%
San Francisco Giants win		2.98	3.66	+22.6%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Scoring by inning

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	Total
Los Angeles Dodgers	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	1	4
San Francisco Giants	0	0	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	3

The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

Metric	San Francisco Giants	Los Angeles Dodgers
congestion 21d	18.00	19.00
elo	1456.44	1588.20
elo momentum (last 5)	-6.49	-0.84
matches since win	3.00	0.00
rest days	0.74	0.74
runs against avg (last 10)	4.20	2.40
runs for avg (last 10)	3.30	4.70