← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sun, Jul 5, 05:05 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Kyle Bradish (ERA 3.77, WHIP 1.45) · home: Nick Lodolo (ERA 5.05, WHIP 1.47)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cincinnati Reds win in Cincinnati Reds v Baltimore Orioles · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.97 | Drought fade | $10.00 | 1.97 | $9.70 | +8% | +9.70 | won |
Cincinnati Reds win in Cincinnati Reds v Baltimore Orioles · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.97 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.97 | $9.70 | +8% | +9.70 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Orioles win | 50% | 1.93 |
| Cincinnati Reds win | 50% | 1.97 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Orioles | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| Cincinnati Reds | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — | 3 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cincinnati Reds | Baltimore Orioles |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 19.00 | 18.00 |
| elo | 1472.18 | 1487.88 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.15 | 1.83 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 0.75 | 0.75 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 5.50 | 4.60 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 3.90 |