← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sat, Jul 4, 01:45 AM UTC
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Milwaukee Brewers win in Arizona Diamondbacks v Milwaukee Brewers · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.73 | Steam confusion | $10.00 | 1.73 | $7.30 | +2% | +7.30 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Milwaukee Brewers win | 58% | 1.73 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks win | 42% | 2.34 |
across 24 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milwaukee Brewers win | 1.67 | 1.63 | -2.7% | |
| Arizona Diamondbacks win | 2.24 | 2.30 | +2.8% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milwaukee Brewers | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 7 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Arizona Diamondbacks | Milwaukee Brewers |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 17.00 | 18.00 |
| elo | 1491.16 | 1587.06 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.85 | -2.13 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 2.00 | 1.32 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 3.40 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 3.90 |