← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sat, Jul 4, 02:10 AM UTC
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
San Diego Padres win in Los Angeles Dodgers v San Diego Padres · Match winner (2-way) @ 3.20 | Steam confusion | $10.00 | 3.20 | $22.00 | +2% | -10.00 | lost |
San Diego Padres win in Los Angeles Dodgers v San Diego Padres · Match winner (2-way) @ 3.20 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 3.20 | $22.00 | +2% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Dodgers win | 69% | 1.42 |
| San Diego Padres win | 31% | 3.20 |
across 22 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Diego Padres win | 3.08 | 3.05 | -0.9% | |
| Los Angeles Dodgers win | 1.40 | 1.40 | +0.1% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Diego Padres | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | — | 4 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Los Angeles Dodgers | San Diego Padres |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 18.00 | 18.00 |
| elo | 1607.51 | 1506.14 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.35 | -15.81 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| rest days | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 7.50 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 6.90 | 4.40 |