National All-Stars 0–4 American All-Stars

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Wed, Jul 15, 12:00 AM UTC

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

Bet	Strategy	Stake	Odds	To win	Model edge	P&L	Status
American All-Stars win in National All-Stars v American All-Stars · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.24	MLB dog variance	$10.00	2.24	$12.36	+1%	+12.36	won

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
National All-Stars win	56%	6.29
American All-Stars win	44%	2.73

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

Outcome	Trend	First	Now	Move
American All-Stars win		2.19	1.15	-47.3%
National All-Stars win		1.60	6.29	+294.3%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Scoring by inning

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	Total
American All-Stars	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	4
National All-Stars	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

Metric	National All-Stars	American All-Stars
congestion 21d	0.00	0.00
elo	1497.30	1502.70
matches since win	1.00	0.00
rest days	7.00	7.00