← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sun, Jul 12, 05:40 PM UTC
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Seattle Mariners win in Tampa Bay Rays v Seattle Mariners · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.34 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 2.34 | $13.42 | +6% | +13.42 | won |
Seattle Mariners win in Tampa Bay Rays v Seattle Mariners · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.34 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 2.34 | $13.42 | +6% | +13.42 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Rays win | 53% | 13.41 |
| Seattle Mariners win | 47% | 2.34 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seattle Mariners win | 2.34 | 2.14 | -8.6% | |
| Tampa Bay Rays win | 1.65 | 1.73 | +5.1% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seattle Mariners | 0 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Tampa Bay Rays | Seattle Mariners |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 17.00 | 15.00 |
| elo | 1524.99 | 1513.23 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.87 | -9.22 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 0.90 | 0.90 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 3.80 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 4.10 |