← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sat, Jul 11, 08:10 PM UTC
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Boston Red Sox win in New York Mets v Boston Red Sox · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.29 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 2.29 | $12.88 | +19% | +12.88 | won |
leg 1: Washington Nationals win in Washington Nationals v New York Yankees · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.59 lost leg 2: Boston Red Sox win in New York Mets v Boston Red Sox · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.19 won leg 3: Chicago White Sox win in Chicago White Sox v Oakland Athletics · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.93 won | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 10.94 | $19.88 | +48% | -2.00 | lost |
Boston Red Sox win in New York Mets v Boston Red Sox · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.19 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 2.19 | $11.87 | +14% | +11.87 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| New York Mets win | 57% | 1.70 |
| Boston Red Sox win | 43% | 2.29 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston Red Sox win | 2.19 | 2.24 | +2.3% | |
| New York Mets win | 1.70 | 1.68 | -1.6% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston Red Sox | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| New York Mets | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | New York Mets | Boston Red Sox |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 17.00 | 16.00 |
| elo | 1466.27 | 1522.62 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.82 | 6.84 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 0.85 | 0.85 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 5.50 | 3.30 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 4.50 |