← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sun, Jul 5, 01:38 AM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Sonny Gray (ERA 2.69, WHIP 1.11) · home: Sam Aldegheri (ERA 4.85, WHIP 1.45)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Los Angeles Angels win in Los Angeles Angels v Boston Red Sox · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.24 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 2.24 | $12.36 | -2% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Boston Red Sox win | 58% | 1.65 |
| Los Angeles Angels win | 42% | 2.24 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston Red Sox | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 8 |
| Los Angeles Angels | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Los Angeles Angels | Boston Red Sox |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 19.00 | 18.00 |
| elo | 1434.18 | 1513.09 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.42 | -3.60 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 4.20 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 4.60 |