← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sun, Sep 20, 12:10 AM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Cam Schlittler (ERA 1.95, WHIP 0.9) · home: Brandon Pfaadt (ERA 3.77, WHIP 1.17)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Arizona Diamondbacks win in Arizona Diamondbacks v New York Yankees · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.24 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 2.24 | $12.36 | +5% | +12.36 | won |
Arizona Diamondbacks win in Arizona Diamondbacks v New York Yankees · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.24 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 2.24 | $12.36 | +5% | +12.36 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| New York Yankees win | 55% | 2.59 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks win | 45% | 2.40 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Yankees win | 1.55 | 1.90 | +22.8% | |
| Arizona Diamondbacks win | 2.09 | 1.95 | -6.9% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Yankees | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Arizona Diamondbacks | New York Yankees |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 17.00 | 17.00 |
| elo | 1506.08 | 1571.53 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.88 | 10.60 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 0.94 | 0.94 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 3.40 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 6.00 |