← Major League Baseball 2026 · Thu, Sep 24, 10:05 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Bryse Wilson (ERA 3.67, WHIP 1.28) · home: Andrew Painter (ERA 5.59, WHIP 1.42)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Milwaukee Brewers win in Philadelphia Phillies v Milwaukee Brewers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.14 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 2.14 | $11.40 | +7% | +11.40 | won |
Milwaukee Brewers win in Philadelphia Phillies v Milwaukee Brewers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.00 | Pitcher edge | $10.00 | 2.00 | $10.00 | +0% | +10.00 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Milwaukee Brewers win | 51% | 2.14 |
| Philadelphia Phillies win | 49% | 2.05 |
across 6 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milwaukee Brewers win | 1.76 | 1.97 | +11.8% | |
| Philadelphia Phillies win | 1.90 | 1.86 | -1.9% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milwaukee Brewers | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 5 |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Philadelphia Phillies | Milwaukee Brewers |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 18.00 | 18.00 |
| elo | 1551.64 | 1594.50 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.23 | 6.77 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 0.98 | 0.98 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 3.70 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 4.80 |