← Major League Baseball 2026 · Fri, Sep 18, 11:10 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: · home: Zac Thornton (ERA 3.44, WHIP 1.16)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: Philadelphia Phillies win in New York Mets v Philadelphia Phillies · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.98 lost leg 2: Kansas City Royals win in Pittsburgh Pirates v Kansas City Royals · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.58 lost leg 3: Chicago Cubs win in Cincinnati Reds v Chicago Cubs · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.82 lost | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 9.30 | $16.59 | +18% | -2.00 | lost |
Philadelphia Phillies win in New York Mets v Philadelphia Phillies · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.98 | Drought fade | $10.00 | 1.98 | $9.80 | +6% | -10.00 | lost |
Philadelphia Phillies win in New York Mets v Philadelphia Phillies · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.98 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.98 | $9.80 | +6% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Phillies win | 51% | 2.01 |
| New York Mets win | 49% | 1.97 |
across 6 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Phillies win | 1.76 | 1.97 | +11.8% | |
| New York Mets win | 1.97 | 1.86 | -5.6% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Phillies | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| New York Mets | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | — | 6 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | New York Mets | Philadelphia Phillies |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 19.00 | 19.00 |
| elo | 1490.08 | 1556.87 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -15.78 | 1.45 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 4.30 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 5.40 | 4.30 |