← Major League Baseball 2026 · Fri, Sep 18, 10:40 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Clay Holmes (ERA 2.85, WHIP 1.15) · home: Chase Burns (ERA 2.8, WHIP 1.15)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: Philadelphia Phillies win in New York Mets v Philadelphia Phillies · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.98 lost leg 2: Kansas City Royals win in Pittsburgh Pirates v Kansas City Royals · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.58 lost leg 3: Chicago Cubs win in Cincinnati Reds v Chicago Cubs · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.82 lost | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 9.30 | $16.59 | +18% | -2.00 | lost |
Chicago Cubs win in Cincinnati Reds v Chicago Cubs · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.82 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.82 | $8.20 | +4% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Chicago Cubs win | 54% | 1.82 |
| Cincinnati Reds win | 46% | 2.24 |
across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Cubs win | 1.76 | 1.77 | +0.4% | |
| Cincinnati Reds win | 1.97 | 2.09 | +6.3% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Cubs | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Cincinnati Reds | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | — | 6 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cincinnati Reds | Chicago Cubs |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 18.00 | 18.00 |
| elo | 1457.71 | 1550.56 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.09 | 1.69 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 1.25 | 1.96 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 7.70 | 4.80 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 2.80 | 5.20 |