Pittsburgh Pirates 8–5 Kansas City Royals

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Fri, Sep 18, 10:40 PM UTC

Probable pitchers: away: Randy Dobnak (ERA 2.73, WHIP 1.27) · home: Paul Skenes (ERA 3.78, WHIP 1.13)

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

Bet	Strategy	Stake	Odds	To win	Model edge	P&L	Status
leg 1: Philadelphia Phillies win in New York Mets v Philadelphia Phillies · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.98 lost leg 2: Kansas City Royals win in Pittsburgh Pirates v Kansas City Royals · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.58 lost leg 3: Chicago Cubs win in Cincinnati Reds v Chicago Cubs · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.82 lost	Chaos parlay	$2.00	9.30	$16.59	+18%	-2.00	lost
Kansas City Royals win in Pittsburgh Pirates v Kansas City Royals · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.58	Pitcher edge	$10.00	2.58	$15.80	+6%	-10.00	lost
Kansas City Royals win in Pittsburgh Pirates v Kansas City Royals · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.58	Elo value MLB	$10.00	2.58	$15.80	+6%	-10.00	lost
Kansas City Royals win in Pittsburgh Pirates v Kansas City Royals · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.46	MLB dog variance	$10.00	2.46	$14.59	-1%	-10.00	lost

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Pittsburgh Pirates win	61%	1.57
Kansas City Royals win	39%	2.59

across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

Outcome	Trend	First	Now	Move
Kansas City Royals win		2.34	2.53	+7.8%
Pittsburgh Pirates win		1.44	1.54	+7.1%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Scoring by inning

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	Total
Kansas City Royals	1	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	5
Pittsburgh Pirates	0	0	2	2	1	0	3	0	—	8

The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

Metric	Pittsburgh Pirates	Kansas City Royals
congestion 21d	18.00	18.00
elo	1500.70	1466.43
elo momentum (last 5)	0.17	-6.30
matches since win	0.00	1.00
rest days	1.25	0.98
runs against avg (last 10)	3.80	3.60
runs for avg (last 10)	3.70	3.20