← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sat, Sep 19, 11:10 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Grant Holmes (ERA 3.49, WHIP 1.3) · home: Hayden Wesneski (ERA 3.7, WHIP 1.13)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: Milwaukee Brewers win in Baltimore Orioles v Milwaukee Brewers · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.86 won leg 2: San Diego Padres win in San Diego Padres v Miami Marlins · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.70 won leg 3: Atlanta Braves win in Houston Astros v Atlanta Braves · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.09 won | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 6.64 | $11.28 | +19% | +11.28 | won |
Atlanta Braves win in Houston Astros v Atlanta Braves · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.09 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 2.09 | $10.95 | +6% | +10.95 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Houston Astros win | 53% | 1.86 |
| Atlanta Braves win | 47% | 2.14 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Braves win | 1.97 | 1.97 | 0.0% | |
| Houston Astros win | 1.67 | 1.83 | +9.1% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Braves | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| Houston Astros | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Houston Astros | Atlanta Braves |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 18.00 | 18.00 |
| elo | 1497.62 | 1542.86 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.64 | -3.29 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 0.96 | 0.96 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 5.10 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 4.70 |