← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sun, Sep 20, 08:10 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Sandy Alcantara (ERA 3.84, WHIP 1.23) · home: Walker Buehler (ERA 4.58, WHIP 1.37)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: Milwaukee Brewers win in Baltimore Orioles v Milwaukee Brewers · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.86 won leg 2: San Diego Padres win in San Diego Padres v Miami Marlins · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.70 won leg 3: Atlanta Braves win in Houston Astros v Atlanta Braves · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.09 won | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 6.64 | $11.28 | +19% | +11.28 | won |
San Diego Padres win in San Diego Padres v Miami Marlins · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.70 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.70 | $7.03 | +6% | +7.03 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| San Diego Padres win | 58% | 1.73 |
| Miami Marlins win | 42% | 2.29 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami Marlins win | 2.24 | 2.14 | -4.3% | |
| San Diego Padres win | 1.55 | 1.73 | +12.0% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami Marlins | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| San Diego Padres | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | — | 7 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | San Diego Padres | Miami Marlins |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 18.00 | 18.00 |
| elo | 1545.91 | 1485.83 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.75 | -0.44 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 0.81 | 0.81 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 6.30 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 7.30 | 5.40 |