← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sat, Sep 19, 08:05 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Robert Gasser (ERA 4.3, WHIP 1.27)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: Milwaukee Brewers win in Baltimore Orioles v Milwaukee Brewers · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.86 won leg 2: San Diego Padres win in San Diego Padres v Miami Marlins · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.70 won leg 3: Atlanta Braves win in Houston Astros v Atlanta Braves · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.09 won | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 6.64 | $11.28 | +19% | +11.28 | won |
Milwaukee Brewers win in Baltimore Orioles v Milwaukee Brewers · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.86 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.86 | $8.61 | +6% | +8.61 | won |
Baltimore Orioles win in Baltimore Orioles v Milwaukee Brewers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.34 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 2.34 | $13.42 | -3% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Milwaukee Brewers win | 56% | 1.93 |
| Baltimore Orioles win | 44% | 2.34 |
across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milwaukee Brewers win | 1.70 | 1.76 | +3.3% | |
| Baltimore Orioles win | 2.05 | 2.10 | +2.6% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milwaukee Brewers | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Baltimore Orioles | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Baltimore Orioles | Milwaukee Brewers |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 19.00 | 19.00 |
| elo | 1500.97 | 1589.44 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.82 | -0.39 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 0.88 | 0.88 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 4.20 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 7.20 |