← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sat, Sep 26, 04:35 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Jonah Tong (ERA 4.21, WHIP 1.32) · home: Jake Irvin (ERA 5.4, WHIP 1.37)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Washington Nationals win in Washington Nationals v New York Mets · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.19 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 2.19 | $11.87 | +8% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| New York Mets win | 55% | 1.86 |
| Washington Nationals win | 45% | 2.24 |
across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Mets win | 1.70 | 1.75 | +2.5% | |
| Washington Nationals win | 2.14 | 2.13 | -0.2% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Mets | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| Washington Nationals | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Washington Nationals | New York Mets |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 17.00 | 19.00 |
| elo | 1469.03 | 1498.17 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.04 | -0.54 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 0.74 | 0.74 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 4.50 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 4.40 |