← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sat, Sep 26, 01:40 AM UTC
Probable pitchers: · home: Jacob Lopez (ERA 5.68, WHIP 1.53)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oakland Athletics win in Oakland Athletics v Houston Astros · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.40 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 2.40 | $13.99 | +4% | +13.99 | won |
Oakland Athletics win in Oakland Athletics v Houston Astros · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.29 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 2.29 | $12.88 | -2% | +12.88 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Houston Astros win | 50% | 5.75 |
| Oakland Athletics win | 50% | 2.66 |
across 6 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Astros win | 1.63 | 4.40 | +169.2% | |
| Oakland Athletics win | 2.09 | 1.19 | -43.4% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Astros | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 5 |
| Oakland Athletics | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | — | 6 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Oakland Athletics | Houston Astros |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 18.00 | 17.00 |
| elo | 1410.81 | 1496.84 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.34 | -0.78 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 5.80 | 5.00 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 4.20 |