← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sun, Sep 20, 05:40 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: · home: Rhett Lowder (ERA 5.79, WHIP 1.52)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cincinnati Reds win in Cincinnati Reds v Chicago Cubs · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.46 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 2.46 | $14.59 | +5% | -10.00 | lost |
Cincinnati Reds win in Cincinnati Reds v Chicago Cubs · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.46 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 2.46 | $14.59 | +5% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Chicago Cubs win | 56% | 1.73 |
| Cincinnati Reds win | 44% | 2.46 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Cubs win | 1.65 | 1.61 | -2.4% | |
| Cincinnati Reds win | 2.05 | 2.40 | +16.9% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Cubs | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 9 |
| Cincinnati Reds | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cincinnati Reds | Chicago Cubs |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 19.00 | 19.00 |
| elo | 1458.22 | 1550.06 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.80 | 2.15 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 0.79 | 0.79 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 7.70 | 4.20 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 5.50 |