← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sun, Sep 27, 07:10 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Parker Messick (ERA 2.55, WHIP 1.04) · home: Daniel Lynch IV (ERA 4.13, WHIP 1.14)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kansas City Royals win in Kansas City Royals v Cleveland Guardians · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.24 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 2.24 | $12.36 | +6% | +12.36 | won |
Kansas City Royals win in Kansas City Royals v Cleveland Guardians · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.19 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 2.19 | $11.87 | +4% | +11.87 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Guardians win | 57% | 2.19 |
| Kansas City Royals win | 43% | 2.29 |
across 6 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Guardians win | 1.56 | 1.70 | +9.2% | |
| Kansas City Royals win | 2.19 | 2.19 | 0.0% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Guardians | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Kansas City Royals | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — | 3 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Kansas City Royals | Cleveland Guardians |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 17.00 | 17.00 |
| elo | 1447.15 | 1520.08 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.33 | 10.28 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 0.83 | 0.83 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 7.60 | 3.50 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 5.80 |