Philadelphia Phillies 0–2 Tampa Bay Rays

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Fri, Sep 25, 10:40 PM UTC

Probable pitchers: away: Freddy Peralta (ERA 4.56, WHIP 1.33) · home: Cristopher Sánchez (ERA 2.93, WHIP 1.22)

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

Bet	Strategy	Stake	Odds	To win	Model edge	P&L	Status
leg 1: Detroit Tigers win in Detroit Tigers v Pittsburgh Pirates · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.09 won leg 2: Tampa Bay Rays win in Philadelphia Phillies v Tampa Bay Rays · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.42 won leg 3: Kansas City Royals win in Kansas City Royals v Cleveland Guardians · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.21 lost	Chaos parlay	$2.00	11.20	$20.41	+29%	-2.00	lost
Tampa Bay Rays win in Philadelphia Phillies v Tampa Bay Rays · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.42	Elo value MLB	$10.00	2.42	$14.20	+8%	+14.20	won
Tampa Bay Rays win in Philadelphia Phillies v Tampa Bay Rays · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.24	MLB dog variance	$10.00	2.24	$12.36	-0%	+12.36	won

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Philadelphia Phillies win	54%	2.09
Tampa Bay Rays win	46%	2.46

across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

Outcome	Trend	First	Now	Move
Tampa Bay Rays win		1.57	2.40	+52.7%
Philadelphia Phillies win		2.01	1.62	-19.4%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Scoring by inning

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	Total
Tampa Bay Rays	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2
Philadelphia Phillies	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

Metric	Philadelphia Phillies	Tampa Bay Rays
congestion 21d	19.00	19.00
elo	1547.97	1546.65
elo momentum (last 5)	-5.08	-1.10
matches since win	2.00	2.00
rest days	1.02	0.98
runs against avg (last 10)	4.10	2.90
runs for avg (last 10)	3.90	3.70