← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sat, Sep 26, 05:10 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: · home: Justin Verlander (ERA 12.27, WHIP 2.18)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: Detroit Tigers win in Detroit Tigers v Pittsburgh Pirates · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.09 won leg 2: Tampa Bay Rays win in Philadelphia Phillies v Tampa Bay Rays · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.42 won leg 3: Kansas City Royals win in Kansas City Royals v Cleveland Guardians · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.21 lost | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 11.20 | $20.41 | +29% | -2.00 | lost |
Detroit Tigers win in Detroit Tigers v Pittsburgh Pirates · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.09 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 2.09 | $10.95 | +13% | +10.95 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Pirates win | 54% | 2.08 |
| Detroit Tigers win | 46% | 7.85 |
across 8 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Pirates win | 1.73 | 2.00 | +15.4% | |
| Detroit Tigers win | 2.01 | 1.84 | -8.5% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| Detroit Tigers | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Detroit Tigers | Pittsburgh Pirates |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 19.00 | 18.00 |
| elo | 1496.88 | 1504.47 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.00 | -0.62 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 0.77 | 0.77 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 4.10 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 4.20 |