Kansas City Royals 9–12 Cleveland Guardians

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Fri, Sep 25, 11:40 PM UTC

Probable pitchers: away: Gavin Williams (ERA 3.63, WHIP 1.08) · home: Noah Cameron (ERA 3.92, WHIP 1.2)

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

Bet	Strategy	Stake	Odds	To win	Model edge	P&L	Status
leg 1: Detroit Tigers win in Detroit Tigers v Pittsburgh Pirates · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.09 won leg 2: Tampa Bay Rays win in Philadelphia Phillies v Tampa Bay Rays · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.42 won leg 3: Kansas City Royals win in Kansas City Royals v Cleveland Guardians · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.21 lost	Chaos parlay	$2.00	11.20	$20.41	+29%	-2.00	lost
Kansas City Royals win in Kansas City Royals v Cleveland Guardians · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.21	Elo value MLB	$10.00	2.21	$12.10	+5%	-10.00	lost
Kansas City Royals win in Kansas City Royals v Cleveland Guardians · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.21	MLB dog variance	$10.00	2.21	$12.10	+5%	-10.00	lost

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Cleveland Guardians win	54%	1.86
Kansas City Royals win	46%	4.31

across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

Outcome	Trend	First	Now	Move
Cleveland Guardians win		1.76	1.25	-29.2%
Kansas City Royals win		1.86	4.31	+131.7%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Scoring by inning

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	Total
Cleveland Guardians	2	1	0	1	3	0	0	0	5	12
Kansas City Royals	1	2	0	2	0	0	0	2	2	9

The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

Metric	Kansas City Royals	Cleveland Guardians
congestion 21d	18.00	18.00
elo	1454.30	1512.94
elo momentum (last 5)	-9.32	7.13
matches since win	1.00	0.00
rest days	1.23	1.04
runs against avg (last 10)	6.10	3.00
runs for avg (last 10)	4.00	4.70