← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sat, Sep 19, 10:10 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Jacob Lopez (ERA 5.02, WHIP 1.48) · home: Tanner Bibee (ERA 4.16, WHIP 1.18)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: Portland Timbers win in Portland Timbers v Atlanta United FC · Match result @ 2.12 leg 2: San Francisco Giants win in Los Angeles Dodgers v San Francisco Giants · Match winner (2-way) @ 3.66 leg 3: Cleveland Guardians win in Cleveland Guardians v Oakland Athletics · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.57 | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 12.17 | $22.34 | +37% | — | pending |
Cleveland Guardians win in Cleveland Guardians v Oakland Athletics · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.57 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.57 | $5.70 | +6% | +5.70 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Guardians win | 61% | 1.57 |
| Oakland Athletics win | 39% | 2.59 |
across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oakland Athletics win | 2.24 | 2.52 | +12.8% | |
| Cleveland Guardians win | 1.55 | 1.55 | 0.0% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oakland Athletics | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| Cleveland Guardians | 5 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | — | 12 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cleveland Guardians | Oakland Athletics |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 18.00 | 19.00 |
| elo | 1505.81 | 1411.15 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.94 | -4.82 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| rest days | 0.96 | 0.96 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 6.10 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 5.60 | 3.30 |